I'm Sorry, Chipper and Josh

I'm sorry, Chipper and Josh. You're both playing very well, but it's not going to happen.

Chipper Jones will NOT hit .400 this season. He just won't. Many people can tell you that the last man to hit .400 for a season was Ted Williams. Ted hit .406 in 1941. In the 60+ years since, nobody has equaled the accomplishment, though many guys have come close. Tony Gwynn was hitting .393 when the strike hit in '94. In 1980, George Brett hit .389. Currently, Chipper Jones is sitting at the .394 mark, having spent the vast majority of the season over the .400 plateau.

But it's not going to happen. Right now, Chipper has every possible advantage going for him. He has a potent hitter behind him (Mark Teixeira), and he is injured (hang with me on this one). He is currently likely headed to the Disabled List to re-hab this ailing thigh. Normally, I don't think an injury seems an advantage, but for a guy who is historically injury prone, it offers Chipper a break right in the middle of the season. He will be better rested for a second-half push, and it is likely not so serious an injury that he will miss enough time to not qualify (by having the minimum number of at-bats to win a batting title). Also, it lends Chipper a perfect excuse to take it easy when he isn't 'feeling it', and this can help him avoid longer slumps. His team is 4 games out of first place, and 3 games under .500, and with their injuries, they can't win the division and have no shot at the wild-card. So, why not try to go for personal accomplishments? There will be no better time than now.

That being said, with those things going his way, it's simply not going to happen. Chipper is a career .310 hitter - a fantastic career number for a man who is a lock for the Hall of Fame. But before this season, his highest BA for a season has been .337, in 2007. Tony Gywnn, on the other hand, posted SEVEN seasons hitting .350 or better (counting his .394 season), and hit over .370 for a season thrice. If Tony Gwynn couldn't do it, then Chipper won't either. Chipper has 254 ABs on the year, so it is still easy enough for him to raise his average (a 3 for 3 game would put him back to .400), but as the season goes on, it will become more and more difficult for him to catch up the .400 mark once he is below it. In the long run, as much as it seems like he is impossible to get out this season, Chipper still won't hit .400.

And Josh Hamilton, I'm sorry, but you're not going to win the Triple Crown. The last man to win a triple crown in either league was Carl Yastrzemski, for the Boston Red Sox in 1967. So, that's over 40 years since we have last seen a Triple Crown winner. That year, he hit .326, with 44 HRs and 121 RBIs. Last year, in the AL, the Triple Crown leaders hit .360 (Magglio Ordonez), with 54 HRs (A-Rod) and 156 RBIs (A-Rod). In the National League, it was .340 (Matt Holliday), 50 (Prince Fielder), and 137 (Matt Holliday).

It would seem that with 2 of the 3 categories being won by the same guy last year, a Triple Crown isn't so unrealistic. But, A-Rod finished 49 points behind Magglio in BA, and Holliday hit 14 fewer Homeruns than Prince. Simply put, it is too difficult to be the best at all three of those things. In this day and age in baseball, there are just too many guys good at too many different things for one man to take the crown in all of them. The real dividing line is homeruns and batting average. It is just too difficult to lead the league in both of those, because there is either going to be a Magglio who hit .360, or a Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder who has 50+ jacks.

Currently, there are only 2 guys in all of MLB that I consider legitimate Triple Crown contenders. Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols. Both are capable of putting up monster HR and RBI numbers, and are such great hitters, they can go through a season hitting .340. Of course, that still means there can't be that guy having a career year to hit .355, or the one guy who plays great and hits 55 homeruns. Plus, to lead the league in RBIs, you have to play on a solid team and get a lot of at-bats in RBI situations. Both A-Rod and Pujols have been injured this year, and while A-Rod is in striking distance on BA and HRs, he is too far out of the RBI race for this year. And Pujols is too hurt and also too far out of the RBI race for the season (plus, Lance Berkman is on fire this season).

So, this adds up to another season without a .400 batting average and without a Triple Crown winner. I hesitate to say these feats will NEVER be accomplished, because you never know what to expect with baseball. But you can mark is guaranteed that this is not the year.

I am sorry for the overly sports-nature of this post. Also, it required so much number reference it took too long to write. Next time, I'll try to keep it shorter, simpler, sweeter.